The only two things that people now remember as arguments for Brexit were controlling immigration and more money for the NHS:

Politics

This is fascinating, and shows despite constant media attention that political issues falls from voters minds quite rapidly. With Brexit now continually a running issue, and no clear direction yet shown, the question of what the people want out of Brexit is becoming less and less clear.

Hopefully we can see the difference between leavers and remainers in the survey.

But, as Prof. Goodwin adds on the Twitter thread, “surprised to see ‘take back control’ on such low numbers”.

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Indeed…

The suggestion that there’s been a Conservative to Labour shift amongst women

Politics

There has been discussion that there has been a radical shift in women changing their vote towards Labour, from the Theresa May fronted Conservatives. This is fascinating and may well be true, however the YouGov data below asserts otherwise.

Data from:

Opinium/Observer; fieldwork Feb 6-8; sample 2002
YouGov, fieldwork Feb 5-6; sample 2000
ICM, fieldwork Feb 2-4; sample 2021

On social media it was apparent that there was a massive shift in the views of 18 – 40 women, perhaps this is where the shift is occurring, but made up by higher age cohorts preference for the Conservatives.

YouGov, who produced the shocking accurate poll showing the Hung Parliament, is showing very different gender splits from ICM and Opinium. It might be that YouGov is supported by other polling but at the moment there’s nothing to reinforce this.

Has there been movement as described? Maybe, but more evidence is required.

 

Tristan Hotham LL.B, MA, MRes, PhD (prospective)

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I am a PhD Researcher at the University of Bath. I study, social media, elections, party politics and campaigning.

My thesis examines the Facebook phenomenon and its role as a campaign tool. Using extracted Facebook data, interviews and supportive external data sources such as the BES and Whotargets.me, this study will examine the impact Facebook is having as a campaign tool online, alongside its wider offline implications for parties campaigning in an era of party change. The thesis will examine pages content approaches effectiveness in garnering engagement, alongside examining the impact Facebook is having upon how parties are campaigning.

“In the information age, man and spider both live in a web.”
― Amit Kalantri, Wealth of Words

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