Short answer
Mostly not. In ten European splits the breakaway's share of engagement rose in nine, but the typical breakaway held only about 5% of national interactions afterwards. The only large breakaway audiences, around Farage and Gyurcsány, had already been built on their personal pages before the split.
What the evidence shows
- Screening splits in 20 European countries found ten, in seven countries from 2011 to 2019, in which both the parent's page and the breakaway's pages are observed; each side's share of national interactions is compared in the 12 months before and after.
- The parent's share fell in six cases and rose in four.
- The breakaway's median gain equalled about two fifths of the parent's pre-split share.
- The combined share of parent and breakaway rose in five cases and fell in five, a pooled change of 2.6 percentage points (SE 3.2), so there is no consistent sign of new energy.
- Where the parent's share fell, the breakaway made up most of the loss in three cases and little or none in three.
Caveats
These are descriptive patterns from few cases, and only splits in which both sides have pages in the data could be included.